Officially, China has called its refusal to allow a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier to dock in Hong Kong over last week’s Thanksgiving holiday a big, terrible “misunderstanding.” Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi characterized the event as such during a closed-door meeting with George Bush on Wednesday, according to reports. Thursday, a tabloid published by China’s Communist Party offered a contradictory justification. The paper cited a military official as blaming the snub on Washington’s decision to sell an anti-missile defense system to Taiwan. I’m not sure I believe either explanation is true.

As I wrote Thanksgiving Day, the Kitty Hawk was scheduled to dock in Hong Kong last Wednesday. Hundreds of the crew’s families flew from Japan, where the ship is based, to greet the servicemen and spend the American holiday in Hong Kong. When port entrance was denied, the Kitty Hawk and the disappointed families were forced to return to the ship’s home port of Yokosuka, near Tokyo. The Pentagon called the ordeal “baffling” and told the press, “It’s regrettable and we have not to date received sufficient explanation as to why it took place.”

A “misunderstanding” is a failure to understand something correctly or a mistake as to intent. It’s also an awesome song by Genesis. But what it is not is a word one can use to describe last China’s actions last Wednesday, one of the most deplorable acts of military inhospitality in recent memory. If you’re a China apologist, as I am at times, consider this: just prior to the Kitty Hawk incident, China refused to allow two U.S. minesweepers in the midst of a threatening storm to dock for safety in Hong Kong. To many military experts, this incident dwarfs the Kitty Hawk snub in its egregiousness. In an AP story Thursday, Admiral Mike Mullen, former chief of the U.S. Navy, was quoted as saying, “That’s an international rule that people who go to sea and responsible nations who are seagoing nations understand, that you always provide safe harbor, then you figure out, if you want to figure out some of the details… China chose not to do that.”

A misunderstanding is characterized by a isolated breakdown in communication, not multiple instances of military hostility and a repeated disregard for the safety of military men at sea.

For over a week, journalists have speculated as to why China would choose to so publicly void its collective rheum and spit directly into America’s face. Some said it was a retaliatory measure for Bush’s celebration of the Dalai Lama last month in Washington. Not likely. But the more popular belief, and supported by The Global Times, the aforementioned tabloid, is that China was retaliating against U.S. plans to sell Taiwan a missile defense system.

According to the International Herald Tribune, the Global Times cited an unidentified senior colonel in the Chinese military, who confirmed that the aggression on behalf of China was in response to the U.S. plans to sell a $940 million upgrade to its Patriot missile system. Here are the details of the deal as reported by Radio Taiwan International on November 14th:

The deal is aimed at strengthening Taiwan’s defense capability against a potential missile attack from China. The Pentagon estimates that China currently has approximately 1,000 short range missiles aimed at Taiwan. China has already signaled its opposition to the proposed deal.

While China did vehemently protest the sale, Taiwan has relied on the U.S. for military weapons for decades and China has never retaliated the way it did last week in Hong Kong. While this may seem plausible, it seems odd that after 60 years of U.S.-Taiwan friendship, that China, all of a sudden, wishes to seek revenge.

Even if China attributes its snub to America’s sale of weapons to Taiwan, this doesn’t necessarily mean it’s true. Perhaps China wants the world to believe the simplistic U.S-Taiwan story in order to suppress and take attention away from a far more dangerous explanation that most of the world’s media has missed.

China routinely holds secret military exercises in and over the waters of the South China Sea. The government periodically shuts down airports in and south of Shanghai, and closes the airspace in southeast China to commercial traffic. No official explanation is ever given for these closures, but no official explanation is ever really needed. Everyone here knows why.

Beginning Tuesday, November 20th, a day before the Kitty Hawk ordeal, China issued one of these airspace closures because its military was to engage in military drills off the southeastern coast. According to a Xinhua story from Thanksgiving Day:

Airspace controls that were imposed over eastern China starting on Tuesday morning might be extended until Sunday, sources with the China Eastern airline company said Thursday. The controls, imposed for unspecified reasons, have affected thousands of passengers traveling to and from eastern China, particularly at airports in Shanghai and Guangzhou.

Always for “unspecified reasons.”

The truth, or at least what I believe to be the truth, is that all of last week, the Chinese military was rehearsing a full-scale attack on Taiwan. This is why the airspace over Shanghai was closed and this is why the Kitty Hawk was refused entry. Here is an excerpt from a Taipei Times story Thursday:

Another explanation was offered by the Hong Kong-based Ming Pao daily, which said the Chinese snub was connected to a large-scale military exercise recently conducted by the Chinese Navy’s Eastern and Southern Fleet in an area of the Pacific Ocean east of Taiwan and north of the Philippines.

The exercise was a drill for blockading Taiwan, it said.

“Sources said that during the exercise some Chinese ships ran into the Kitty Hawk’s battle group in international waters sailing toward Hong Kong,” an online version of the Ming Pao article said.

By refusing to allow the Kitty Hawk into Hong Kong, China “wanted to hide the details of their naval exercises and combat capability” to blockade the Taiwan Strait as part of a military attack on Taiwan, the newspaper said.

This sounds like China. Not a China sour that the Dalai Lama got a stupid medal. Or a China all-of-a-sudden fearful of the friendship between the U.S. and Taiwan. And certainly not a China whose military has “misunderstandings.” But the real China. The China, who as a result of an unexpected run-in with a U.S. ship docking in Hong Kong for Thanksgiving, did what it needed to do to keep its military secrets safe.

The China that thoroughly enjoys keeping the rest of world guessing.

•AP: China: Navy spat not a misunderstanding
•Xinhua: White House: U.S., China to Move Beyond Kitty Hawk Incident
•Taipei Times: US Commander Criticizes China Over Naval Snub

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