What’s China Got To Do With It?
Howard W. French filed a story in Friday’s International Herald Tribune illuminating the relationship between China and the bloody protests in Myanmar this week. While it seems as though Burma has been a ticking time bomb for some years now, is it unclear whether what we have witnessed over the past few days — Buddhist monks rallying over 70,000 protesters Thursday to hit the streets, an estimated 200 civilian deaths, images of Myanmar’s military government spraying fire into a dense crowd of protesters — will end in an overthrow of Myanmar’s junta or will merely end as a victory for the government. Thursday the Burmese government cut the country’s internet in order to minimize the dissemination of images that let the rest of the world see what’s going on there and occupied monasteries of the monks that have spearheaded the protests. Friday, reports claimed that military had taken control of the streets. Myanmar’s big brother to the east, China, has been noticeably slow to get involved in the struggle, reluctantly urging restraint and offended that the Western media has accused Beijing of inaction. As French points out in his always-interesting Letter from China, to call Myanmar and China “allies” undervalues the closeness of their relationship. Nestled between India and China, Myanmar is an unexplored treasure-trove of oil and China is by far, the nation’s biggest trade partner. There is no doubt that a new West-friendly democracy in Myanmar would damage China’s economic interests, and thus Beijing is thrust into its least favorite position of having to choose between economic and moral interests. French asks about China: “Is it a slick free rider on an international system whose workings have done so much to favor its emergence, hiding behind a platitude-based foreign policy while allowing others to do the world’s heavy lifting?” China has the influence to make Myanmar do anything, Beijing’s policy is to stay out of other country’s internal affairs. With the Olympics approaching and as China weathers the storm of public opinion over its Darfur policy and numerous product scandals, the Chinese government can’t afford to suffer yet another P.R. disaster. This is as good of a time as any for China to do some of the world’s heavy lifting and to show the world that it can be the bouncer that not only controls the bar but controls the whole street. As the Internet lines have been disabled in Myanmar, what happens there over the next few days will be less visible. Whether Beijing likes it or not, the same world that has empowered modern China economically will expect that China use its influence to restrain Myanmar’s military.
•IHT: Myanmar Crackdown Sheds Light on Beijing’s Aspirations
•AP: Troops Take Back Control in Myanmar
you know the name Myanmar isn’t recognized by the US?
I think, above all else, this “international crisis” gives Bush an opportunity to use diplomacy and sanctions to help resolve a hot issue and regain some of the humanitarian points we lost in the Abu-Gharib and Guantanamo debacles.
It seems that there is opportunity to pressure China into exerting its influence on the junta and make an ugly belimish in its neighborhood vanish.
China is wary of its image heading into the Olympics and in the wake of the tainted product scandals and so should be somewhat responsive to crafty diplomacy. Let’s see how Bush bungles this one.
Removal of the junta is something he can hang his hat on heading into the lame duck portion of his term and revitalize the image of the republican party.